Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) is a leading digital asset exchange with $404 billion in assets on the platform and 8.4 million monthly transacting users as of fiscal year 2024.
BTIG initiated coverage of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global, assigning a Buy rating and establishing a price forecast of $410.
The price forecast is based on a 25x multiple of the firm’s fiscal year 2027 estimated enterprise value-to-EBITDA, reflecting the company’s leading market position and growth prospects in the rapidly evolving digital asset ecosystem.
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BTIG analysts Andrew Harte and Thomas Smith titled the note, “The Everything Exchange Bridging the Gap Between Crypto and TradFi,” arguing that Coinbase is well-positioned to benefit from overall crypto adoption through two core lenses: its trusted, secure trading platform and its role as a key liaison between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi).
This positioning allows the company to capture value from both speculative trading activity and the long-term structural shift toward onchain finance.
Bull Thesis
The bullish thesis hinges on the company’s aggressive diversification away from being purely a volatile consumer trading platform and its focus on underappreciated growth vectors.
BTIG highlighted three major growth opportunities expected to surprise investors: the rapidly scaling derivatives business, the development of the Base App, and the continued long-term runway for stablecoin adoption, particularly USDC.
The note highlights that Coinbase’s revenue streams have become significantly more diverse; retail transaction revenue, which accounted for over 70% of the business in fiscal year 2022, now constitutes approximately half of the business.
Consequently, subscription and services revenue has grown to account for around 40% of total revenue, making the business much more resilient and attractive to invest in across volatile crypto market cycles.
This shift suggests a more durable financial model less reliant on short-term price movements.
BTIG sees the growth of the derivatives market as a significant potential driver of upside to institutional transaction take-rates.
With roughly 75% of global crypto trading volume derived from derivatives, the company’s recent acquisition of Deribit is viewed as a strategic move to capture this massive market internationally and eventually introduce options trading to U.S. retail customers.
Furthermore, the company’s Base App, formerly Coinbase Wallet, is positioned as a “Web3 super-app” and the front door to the onchain economy, potentially serving as the crypto industry’s answer to a centralized app store.
This decentralized application layer, coupled with the company’s flywheel of user acquisition and education, is expected to generate new forms of revenue, including sequencer fees.
Finally, the analysts view Coinbase’s partnership with Circle Internet Group (NASDAQ:CRCL) regarding USDC as a major, sustainable revenue generator (currently exceeding $1 billion annually), arguing that the mainstream adoption of stablecoins is still in its early days with a long runway for growth that will directly benefit Coinbase’s revenue share and platform engagement.
The regulatory environment has also been described as increasingly supportive, providing a clearer runway for sustained expansion.
Bear Thesis
The analysts see a bear case for Coinbase if a prolonged crypto downturn drives volume below estimates, if Coinbase fails to diversify its revenue base, or if competition erodes Coinbase’s market share.
COIN Price Action: Coinbase Global shares were up 2.69% at $346.58 at the time of publication on Wednesday. The stock is trading within its 52-week range of $142.58 to $444.64, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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