Jim Kubiak
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Bills fans will have mixed emotions about their latest victory, this one a 31-19 decision over the winless New Orleans Saints, if they already don’t.
On one hand, a win is a win, but on the other hand, this was a two-point affair with just minutes remaining. The paradox of possessing elite potential and underachieving until the end is perplexing – and yet admirable, in the sense that the Bills can find ways to beat teams, even when they struggle to do the ordinary things well.
Josh Allen eventually made the plays that made the difference, alongside James Cook (22 attempts for 117 yards, one touchdown), who had his third consecutive 100-yard game. Cook also set a Bills franchise record, having rushed for a touchdown in eight consecutive games. He now leads the NFL with 21 rushing touchdowns since the beginning of 2024.
Allen and Cook’s production combined for 162 of the team’s 165 rushing yards.
Passing the football, Allen completed 16 of 22 attempts (73%) for 209 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing seven times for 45 yards and a touchdown. His performance grade of 88% reflects in part a disastrous second quarter for the offense in which the Bills had three penalties and Allen completed 2 of 6 attempts for just 12 passing yards while throwing an interception and being sacked twice.
If we remove that quarter, perhaps this game may not have been so close.
The Bills staggered into halftime with a 14-10 lead, thanks to an interception by Cole Bishop before the break. The Bills were staring at the possibility of being down 17-14 to a Saints team who had been struggling to stay in games to this point. It was a sobering moment.
However, the Bills rallied as they always do, and they turned the tides on 3 of 4 possessions in the second half, resulting in 17 points. Allen had an incredible 27-yard scramble up the middle that catapulted his next throw into the end zone to Dalton Kincaid, capping off the hard-fought victory. The penalties, the sacks, and the porous run defense were erased by that magical ability to rise to the challenge – any challenge.
FIRST QUARTER
Play selection: 14 plays (five passes, nine runs)
Allen: 5 for 5 passing, 103 yards, TD pass; 1 carry for 1 yards.
Performance grade: 100 %
Score: Bills, 14-7.
Allen and the Bills breezed down the field on their first drive of the game. It took seven plays in 4:04 to travel 79 yards for Allen’s first touchdown pass of the game.
Josh Allen touchdown pass to Khalil Shakir
Here, on second-and-5 as the Bills crossed into Saints’ territory for the first time, offensive coordinator Joe Brady called this receiver screen to Khalil Shakir. Notice how quickly Allen fired the ball to Shakir and how Dalton Kincaid’s motion allowed him to pick up steam as he hunted down the most outside defender.
The combination of the Kincaid and Tyrell Shavers blocks gave Shakir enough space to run between the blocks – but Shakir himself broke two tackles on this touchdown play.
This was a remarkable effort by Shakir, breaking tackles and running away from defenders in the open field. The sustained blocking from Shavers and Kincaid were also outstanding. This was as good a start to the game as the Bills could have asked for.
That secure feeling of leading in this game was short-lived, however, as the Saints answered immediately with a seven-play, 69-yard scoring drive of their own. This quickly tied the game 3:56 later.
Allen and the Bills’ offense went back to the efficient work we are accustomed to seeing with another seven-play touchdown drive to jump into the lead again. Allen completed both passes he threw to Keon Coleman, but most of the heavy lifting was done by Cook and the great work of the offensive line.
On second-and-4, as the Bills crossed midfield, Allen threw this tremendous 20-yard comeback to Coleman that continued the offensive momentum.
Josh Allen 20-yard comeback pass to Keon Coleman
This was a superb job by Brady of using a run-heavy personnel grouping (“21” personnel – two running backs, one tight end, two receivers) to manipulate the Saints into Cover-3 zone. The Bills only had two receivers in routes off of the play-action fake to Cook. Despite the Saints recognizing the play-action right away, they were stuck in the soft zone, allowing Coleman to enjoy an uncontested cushion as he broke to the sideline. This was as clear and simple a throw as an NFL quarterback could have. Allen drilled the easy completion that gained 20 yards without any real effort. It looked as if there wasn’t a defense on the field.
Four straight Cook runs later, he crossed the goal line for the go-ahead score, 14-7.
The first quarter was masterful. Allen completed all five of his attempts, and it all looked so easy. However, that was about to change.
SECOND QUARTER
Play selection: 14 plays (six passes, six runs)
Buffalo has allowed quarterbacks to rush for a league-high 199 rushing yards on 22 carries, nine of which have occurred on third down and eight that have gone for at least 10 yards.
Allen: 2 for 6 passing, 12 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, two sacks; no carries for 0 yards.
Performance grade: 57 %
Score: Bills, 14-10.
The disastrous second quarter began, as most calamities do, with a mistake.
The Bills’ defense forced the Saints’ first punt of the game and gave Allen an opportunity to jump into a commanding 21-7 lead with another touchdown. It seemed that the Bills would put the game away early.
The Bills’ next offensive series began on their own 12-yard line and lasted just three plays, as Allen threw this interception.
Josh Allen intercepted by Saints safety Jonas Sanker
Here, on third-and-9, Allen was late on this go route to Coleman, who had beaten Isaac Yiadom off the jam at the line of scrimmage and was on top of the defender all the way down the field.
The Saints’ defense played Cover-1, man-to-man with one free safety, and blitzed Allen to his left. The Bills’ offensive line picked up the extra rusher without issue, and Allen had a clean and comfortable pocket to step into. However, he waited a moment too long to float the ball to Coleman.
The Saints’ safety, Jonas Sanker, hedged his drop in the middle of the field toward Coleman’s side enough to help on the deep throw. Sanker was able to react and intercept the throw. This ended the Bills’ streak of 391 offensive plays without a turnover, and it also breathed life into a team that could have potentially been in a 14-point deficit.
Instead, the winless Saints had a perfect opportunity to potentially tie the game.
Fortunately, the Bills’ defense forced their own three-and-out. Allen and the Bills’ offense continued to struggle on their next possession, perhaps shaken by the turn of events.
The Bills started their next offensive possession on their own 2-yard line. Following a hard run by Cook and a quick completion, the Bills were first-and-10 when Allen’s arm was hit in the act of throwing by Jonathan Bullard as he beat two Bills blockers around the edge. This redirected attempt was nearly intercepted. Fortunately for the Bills, linebacker Pete Werner dropped the football.
Two plays later, on third-and-7, Allen was scrambling around, trying to make something happen, because Coleman had been knocked to the ground by Saints safety Justin Reid.
Third-and-7: Keon Coleman knocked down by Saints safety Justin Reid
I believe this was going to be another comeback route by Coleman. He had motioned inside, which created more room for him to work the sidelines. Reid drilled him as he was trying to get past and into the second level. The Saints again had a middle safety and were vulnerable underneath their deeper coverage. The moment Coleman went down, Allen scrambled and tried to make a heroic throw to Curtis Samuel, but he was too far down the field for Allen to reach him.
This drive ended with a punt and the feeling that the Bills’ offense had developed a jam in their offensive gears.
The Bills’ defense answered again, forcing a long 54-yard field-goal attempt that was good and trimmed the Bills’ lead to just 14-10.
With the game seemingly slipping away from the undefeated Bills, the offense had their worst drive of the season. The drive started at the Bills’ 25-yard line and they punted from their own 6-yard line. The four-play drive consisted of a jet-sweep to Elijah Moore for no gain, a sack, an offsides penalty on the entire offense and finally another sack. Credit the Saints’ pass rushers, Cameron Jordan and Carl Granderson, for outstanding individual efforts on each sack – but to go backward at that time of the game, for a team as talented as the Bills, was an unfortunate turn of events.
Credit the Buffalo defensive effort again as they created a much-needed turnover.
The Saints were about to score the go ahead touchdown. Cole Bishop made an outstanding one-handed grab, wiping out a touchdown that would have given the Saints a 17-14 lead heading into halftime (and receiving the ball to start the third quarter). The interception saved Allen and the Bills’ offense from themselves, allowing the stalled Bills’ offense to regroup at halftime hanging on to a 14-10 lead.
In all, the second quarter consisted of 14 offensive plays, including an interception, what could have been a second interception, two sacks and three penalties.
Nearly half of Buffalo’s offensive plays – six total – were fouled up. This uncharacteristically poor execution was saved by the defense as the Bills’ undefeated status hung in the balance.
I believe this second quarter was created by a combination of factors that included two outstanding pass-rushes by the Saints defensive front, a lack of concentration and discipline with penalties, and perhaps some fear of not being ahead by more in this game. Combining a potent brew like this would effectively thwart any team.
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THIRD QUARTER
Play selection: 10 plays (four passes, six runs)
Allen: 4 for 4 passing, 55 yards, 1 TD, one sack; one carries for 5 yards, 1 TD
Performance grade: 100%
Score: Bills, 21-16.
Credit Bills coach Sean McDermott for clearing heads at halftime. The Bills came out roaring in the third quarter.
First, the defense forced a Saints punt after just four plays. This gave Allen and the Bills’ offense another opportunity to take a two-score lead.
Allen orchestrated a monster nine-play touchdown drive that helped get the game back under control. In all, this series chewed up 6:09 of clock and stretched 80 yards.
Cook had five strong runs, and Allen completed every attempt, including this beautiful bootleg pass to tight end Jackson Hawes.
Josh Allen boot pass to tight end Jackson Hawes
What made this play design work so well was Shakir.
Notice how he was the most outside receiver, then he dipped inside of Hawes. This made it look like he was blocking, and this action made cornerback Quincy Riley react as if he were on the backside of a run. It was too late when Riley realized it was a pass, and he tried to grab Shakir. This allowed Hawes to block and release into the flat with no defenders anywhere to be found.
Credit Brady for the nuanced weakside play-action pass from “11” personnel with Hawes in the game, and the slick variation of Shakir dipping inside of Hawes. All of this made a difference in the outcome as Allen only needed to get the ball over the defensive end for the easy completion.
The Bills’ offense had regained its mojo when two plays later, Allen ran in his first and only touchdown of the game.
Josh Allen touchdown run
Here, on second-and-goal, Brady gave Allen a run-pass option. The entire Bills’ offense went left, while Cook and Allen went right. Shakir blocked down and released to the back pylon. Allen immediately pump-faked to get the pursuing defender, Reid, to jump and leave his feet. Once Allen recognized that the pump-fake worked, he barreled into the end zone for the long-awaited touchdown.
This was a terrific play-call to get both Allen and Cook on the same side working on two defenders. I think we would all take those odds from the 5-yard line.
Finally, the Bills had taken the long awaited two-score lead, 21-10.
To the Saints’ credit, they remained poised and answered with their own 11-play touchdown drive, making the game 21-16 Bills as the third-quarter came to a close.
This was a perfect quarter for Allen, who completed all four of his attempts for 55 yards and ran for a touchdown.
FOURTH QUARTER
Play selection: 19 plays (seven passes, 12 runs)
Allen: 5 for 6 passing, 39 yards, 1 TD, one sack; five carries for 39 yards.
Performance grade: 95%
Through four games, James Cook has 401 yards and five touchdowns on 75 carries. Ray Davis, meanwhile, has had just 11 carries for 29 yards, and he has played just 39 offensive snaps (14%). As a rookie, Davis played on 24% of the Bills’ offensive snaps last season.
Score: Bills, 31-19
Allen and the Bills’ eighth series of the game began at the end of the third quarter and carried into the fourth. The offense stalled at midfield and tried a cutesy underneath flip to Shakir on fourth-and-2 that was stonewalled by the Saints’ defense.
Backup right tackle Ryan Van DeMark tripped on the foot of right guard O’Cyrus Torrence as he was pulling to kick out Saints defensive end Curtis Granderson. Granderson was unblocked and engulfed Shakir. Had Van DeMark been able to block Granderson the way this was designed, this play would have had a chance for the first down and much more.
This failed fourth-down attempt put the Saints in position to take the lead with a touchdown drive, but the Bills’ defense again stopped the Saints despite their great field position.
The Saints were forced to kick a 35-yard field goal following what appeared to be a Saints’ touchdown pass. Upon review, the touchdown was overturned. The field goal closed the gap to 21-19, but the Bills nearly lost the lead and the momentum on that play.
The next offensive possession for the Bills was perhaps one of the most critical in the game. The stage was set for Allen to do Josh Allen-type things with 9 minutes to play and the game in the balance.
On third-and-5 from the Bills’ 45-yard line, Allen ripped off the play of the game – this 27-yard scramble up the middle.
Josh Allen’s 27-yard scramble up the middle vs. the Saints
Allen made Werner, the linebacker, and Sanker, the safety, miss unobstructed tackles in the open field. Each had a shot at Allen, but the elusiveness and ferocity with which Allen runs made it impossible to wrangle him to the ground. Watch Allen pick up speed, then juke back and forth in front of Werner and Sanker. This was an incredibly athletic and powerful statement-like run by Allen when the Bills needed it most.
On the very next play, with the momentum in the Bills’ favor, Allen drilled this perfect touchdown pass to Kincaid.
Josh Allen’s game-clinching TD pass to Dalton Kincaid
Here, cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry thought he was being blocked by Shavers. Then he reacted and covered Shavers on his post pattern down the field. Kincaid made it initially look like he was blocking in the flat. Then he released behind the flat defender into the voided area.
Brady had used several of these receiver screens in this game, including the Shakir touchdown pass in the first quarter. The Saints were reacting hard to the Bills’ potential screen here, and the Bills used this sensitivity to their advantage. As soon as Allen saw the cornerback, McKinstry, stay on Shavers, he knew he had a touchdown.
This was a spectacular play-call – not only for its timing after a gashing run, but also by using Kincaid and Shavers in the same way they did earlier. This fooled the Saints and allowed Allen an easy touchdown. Credit Brady for the strategic value and Allen for the execution.
This combination of plays by Allen on this drive was crucial for this important victory. The Bills jumped into a two-score lead again, 28-19.
The Saints turned the ball over on downs, and then, after forcing a punt, committed a roughing-the-kicker penalty that extended the Bills’ final drive, which ended in one more 35-yard field goal.
The final score was 31-19, but the 12-point difference wasn’t a reflection of just how close this game actually was.
Conclusion
The question I had upon conclusion of this Bills’ victory was this: Was this the same team that beat the Ravens in week 1 and has what it takes to win the Super Bowl?
Upon review of this game, my answer is yes.
The special quality the Bills have is centered on Allen – and now Cook as well. The balanced rushing (Buffalo is first in the NFL in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns) and passing attack (sixth in yards, ninth in touchdowns) give the Bills two unique gears. With Brady mixing personnel groupings so frequently, defenses don’t know what’s coming at them on any given play.
Defensively, these Bills are first in the NFL in passing attempts and passing yards allowed – but they are also ranked 21st in rushing attempts, 31st in rushing yards allowed and 26th in rushing touchdowns allowed. Those are paradoxical in nature. The same defensive players are categorically on opposite sides of the defensive spectrum in comparison between their defensive passing and rushing performance.
This may not fit into a perfect Super Bowl style-mold, but it does fit Allen’s own personality. He himself is a paradoxical anomaly who has built consistency but at the same time retains unpredictability. This Jekyll-and-Hyde style keeps fans, pundits and opponents guessing.
With this style of play, are these resilient Bills capable of defeating a locked-and-loaded Chiefs team to get to the championship game, or an NFL juggernaut like the Eagles in the Super Bowl? That’s not yet certain.
But my take on this game was that these Bills have the molecular structure to play with the very best physical abilities of their opponents and lower their output when playing less dynamic teams.
In the end, winning is what matters.
Overall QB Performance Grade: 88%
Passing: 16 of 22 passes (73%), 209 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Rushing: Seven carries, 45 yards, no fumbles, 1 TD
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Jim Kubiak
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