Let’s start off with a subjective stat: The entertainment rating of a Red Sox-Yankees playoff series is a 10 out of 10.
The Red Sox, who finished with an 89-73 record to earn the second American League Wild Card spot and the No. 5 seed in the AL, will revive one of the best rivalries in sports when they travel to Yankee Stadium for a best-of-three series against the Yankees, who earned the top Wild Card spot and No. 4 seed at 94-68.
You’re likely well aware of the history between these teams — can we interest you in another 2004 ALCS documentary? — but a lot has changed in both Boston and New York, even since their last postseason meeting in 2021. In fact, pitcher Garrett Whitlock is the only player from that 2021 team on the Red Sox’ current playoff roster.
So, while Boston has bested New York in three straight postseason meetings dating back to that 2004 ALCS, we’ll stay more focused on the present in our breakdown of Red Sox-Yankees. Here are six stats to know ahead of Tuesday’s Game 1 (6 p.m. ET on ESPN) that could swing the series in either direction.
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Stat No. 1: .692
That’s the Red Sox’ winning percentage against the Yankees this season (9-4 record), which is tied for their best mark against their division rivals since 1973, per The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier. Boston also went 5-2 at Yankee Stadium this season.
That stat should give Red Sox fans some optimism, but it comes with a caveat: The Yankees took two of three from Boston in the Bronx in mid-September, with newly-acquired closer David Bednar picking up the save in both wins. Which leads us to our next stat…
Stat No. 2: 29
That’s the number of wins the Yankees recorded in their final 40 regular-season games — the most in MLB by a decent margin.
The Yankees were just eight games over .500 in mid-August as they dealt with injuries and growing pains of their trade deadline acquisitions. Since that date, however, they’ve absolutely caught fire, with a .725 winning percentage to close the season.
Bednar has helped stabilize the back of the bullpen with a 2.19 ERA in pinstripes, while Aaron Judge carried the offense with a ridiculous 1.292 OPS in September.
Stat No. 3: 2.34
That’s the combined postseason ERA of Red Sox relievers Aroldis Chapman (2.37) and Garrett Whitlock (2.16).
Chapman in particular has quite the playoff resume: He’s logged 49.1 innings over eight different postseasons with four different teams and won two World Series (with the Cubs in 2016 and with the Rangers in 2023). Whitlock, meanwhile, allowed just two earned runs over 8.1 total innings as a rookie during the 2021 postseason.
Combine those playoff stats with the numbers Whitlock and Chapman posted this season, and that’s quite a 1-2 punch in Boston’s back end.
Stat No. 4: 73 percent
That’s the number of Aaron Judge at-bats vs. Garrett Crochet this season that ended in a strikeout.
Judge, who won the AL batting title this season (.331 average), went 3 for 15 against Crochet with a whopping 11 strikeouts. Two of those three hits were home runs, however, so it’s been feast or famine for the Yankees slugger against Boston’s Game 1 starter.
A bonus stat: Crochet went 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA in four stats vs. New York this season, recording 39 strikeouts in 29.1 innings.
Stat No. 5: .227
The Yankees held opponents to a .227 batting average this season, the second-best mark in MLB.
That’s an impressive stat considering New York ranked a pedestrian 14th in team ERA (3.91) and committed 94 errors, tied for the seventh-most in baseball. But Aaron Boone’s club has relied on timely fielding and pitching to keep teams off the board, so the Red Sox shouldn’t expect many gifts in this three-game series.
Stat No. 6: .752
That’s the Red Sox’ OPS against left-handed pitching this season, good for third-best in the AL.
This is the stat that may decide the series, as the Yankees are starting southpaws in Games 1 and 2 (Max Fried and Carlos Rodon). Rob Refsnyder and Romy Gonzalez — who are both in the starting lineup for Game 1 — have well-deserved reputations as “lefty killers,” but both players have cooled considerably over the past month. In fact, lefty pitchers have posted a 2.56 ERA against Boston since Aug. 18, per Speier.
If the Red Sox can rediscover their lefty-mashing magic, this series could be over in two games. But that’s far from a guarantee, especially against two elite pitchers in Fried and Rodon.