Copyright Salt Lake City Deseret News
Off-year midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, and the outcomes may point to where the Democratic Party is headed. Many states, including Utah, have municipal elections on odd years. There are no federal Senate or House seats up for election this November. Next November, all 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, as well as 35 Senate seats. Currently, Republicans hold the majority in both chambers, with 219-213 in the House and 53-45 in the Senate. This year’s elections feature several mayoral elections, including in New York City and Minneapolis, which could showcase whether democratic socialism is growing in popularity. There are also two gubernatorial races, in Virginia and New Jersey. The Democratic candidate for governor in Virginia, Abigail Spanberger, has campaigned as a moderate. If she wins, it could partially refute the narrative that Democrats need to shift more to the left to be successful. Here are six races to watch in this year’s election. The New York City mayoral race — Mamdani vs. Cuomo The Democratic nominee, Zohran Mamdani, is polling an average of 15.5 percentage points ahead of independent candidate Andrew Cuomo and nearly 30 percentage points above Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, per RealClearPolitics polling. Mamdani, a self-identified democratic socialist, at first ranked poorly in polls early in the Democratic primaries, while Cuomo led with 40% to 50%. But his strong social media presence helped him pull ahead. In an ad Mamdani posted on Thursday, he said the story has flipped. “People say, ‘We’ve got this. It’s over. Cuomo is cooked.’ Do not believe it,” he said, urging his voters to turn out to vote. Mamdani’s campaign promises include city-owned grocery stores, rent freezes, free buses, no-cost child care, raising the minimum wage to $30 and increasing taxes on New York City’s top taxpayers. Virginia’s attorney general race — complicated by some nasty texts After the National Review published politically violent texts sent by Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones, his opponent Jason Miyares is now up in every poll except for one, according to The New York Times. Jones previously served in the Virginia House of Delegates. In 2022, he messaged another state representative, saying if then-state House Speaker Todd Gilbert and his colleagues die before he does, he would “go to their funerals to piss on their graves. Send them out awash in something.” Jones added, if he were given two bullets and had to decide who to shoot between Nazi Germany’s dictator Adolf Hitler, Cambodia’s dictator Pol Pot and Gilbert, “Gilbert gets two bullets to the head.” “Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time,” he said. Roanoke College surveyed Virginia voters and found a large majority, 80%, had heard or seen Jones’ texts. However, 87% of early voters who had already cast ballots for Jones said they would have voted for Jones anyway. Only 6% said the texts would have changed how they voted. California’s Proposition 50 — Democrat-favored redistricting California’s Democratic leadership is prepping for the 2026 midterm elections by redistricting to make electing Democrats to the House easier. California leaders say the move is necessary to counteract Texas’ decision to redistrict to favor additional Republicans. If California’s proposition passes, the state’s independent redistricting commission would be suspended through 2030. The state has historically redrawn its districts once a decade, after the census, per KQED. Backed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former President Barack Obama, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Democratic National Committee chairman Ken Martin, those in favor of Proposition 50 have raised about $85 million in contributions. The move could give California five more Democratic seats in the House. The five Republican seats that could turn blue currently belong to Reps. Doug LaMalfa, in northern California; Ken Calvert, east Los Angeles; Darrell Issa, San Diego area; Kevin Kiley, Sacramento area; and David Valadao, Bakersfield. California currently has 52 House seats, and Democrats fill 43. Public Policy Institute of California reported that 45.3% of voters are registered as Democrats, 25.2% are registered as Republicans and 22.3% are registered as independents. Polymarket gives the referendum a 97% chance of passing. Virginia’s gubernatorial race While Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger garnered some criticism for not asking Jay Jones to drop out of the attorney general’s race after his violent text messages were published, she still has managed to stay ahead of her Republican opponent, Winsome Earle-Sears. RealClearPolitics polling shows the Democratic candidate averaging 7.4 percentage points ahead, just several days before the general election. In debates, Earle-Sears and Spanberger have clashed on transgender issues, with Spanberger saying she would allow local areas to decide on rules of whether they would allow biological men in women’s spaces on a case-by-case basis. Earle-Sears, the current lieutenant governor, has campaigned on enforcing immigration laws, opposing sanctuary cities, supporting pro life policies, and boosting state and local law enforcement. Spanberger has focused her campaign on raising the minimum wage to $15, ensuring Virginians have access to abortion, and increasing affordable child care and housing. New Jersey’s gubernatorial race — and the state’s abortion laws Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are neck-and-neck leading up to election day. Sherrill sits 3.6 percentage points ahead of Ciattarelli, according to Real Clear Politics polling. Ciattarelli or Sherrill will replace current Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who is finishing up his eighth year in office. Before Murphy, Republican Chris Christie served as governor from 2010 through 2018. Key issues in this race have centered on abortion access, with Sherrill supporting the current law, which allows abortions during all stages of pregnancy. Ciattarelli has said he supports women’s “right to choose,” but he doesn’t support “making New Jersey the abortion capital of the country.” New Jersey does not require parental consent for minors to get abortions, and it does not prohibit state funding for abortions, World Population Review reported. In 2020, New Jersey’s abortion rate was 29.2 per 1,000 women, which was more than twice the nation’s rate, per New Jersey Spotlight News. Minneapolis mayoral election — Democrat vs. democratic socialist In Minneapolis, Minnesota, incumbent Mayor Jacob Frey is up against Omar Fateh, a 35-year-old democratic socialist and Somali American. Many have compared Fateh with New York City’s Mamdani, as both are progressive, Muslim millennials. However, while Mamdani has soared ahead of his opponents in New York, polls have shown Frey consistently favored over Fateh. If elected, Frey would be going on his third four-year term; the city does not have term limits for mayors.
