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The most important elections so far of the second Donald Trump administration are not likely to be particularly dramatic. Most of the high-profile races of 2025 have heavy favorites: Zohran Mamdani in the New York City’s mayoral race, Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the Virginia gubernatorial race, and an easy passage for “yes” on a redistricting referendum in California. There are obvious real-world effects from these results. The nation’s largest city is going to have significantly more left-wing governance than it did before. Democratic control of Virginia and a victory for the redistricting referendum, which will favor Democrats, give the party a much better chance of winning back control of Congress in 2026. Lower-profile races in Georgia and Pennsylvania could matter a lot for the electrical bills and reproductive rights of people in those states. Advertisement A Shifting Narrative? But Tuesday night’s results will also matter for the narrative, the story elites — including the political press, elected officials, business leaders and the rest of civil society — tell themselves about the mood of the country and its future direction. Since Trump’s 2024 victory, which saw him win gains among Black, Latino and Asian voters and snag the popular vote, that story has focused on Trump’s inevitability, his iron grip on the GOP, and the unwillingness of other institutions to stand up to his increasingly authoritarian behavior. But there are already cracks forming in this narrative, with recent months highlighting Trump’s growing unpopularity. A power play by his ideological allies to force a late night host off the air backfired horribly. He inspired the largest single day of protests in American history. His poll numbers are hitting new lows, dragged down as Latino and young voters abandon him en masse, feeling he’s broken promises to fix the economy. A shifting narrative, of course, does not confer any actual power. It cannot stop Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids, force judges to throw out charges against the president’s political enemies, or cast a vote in Congress in favor of extending Obamacare subsidies. Advertisement But a strong night for Democrats could cement the idea that Trump’s popularity is overstated and the resistance to him is underrated — an idea that has the potential to snowball. A Trump with more perceived weaknesses is likely to face more pushback, both from sometimes skittish Democrats and from nonpartisan civil society leaders in law, academia or business. It could encourage more Republicans, especially those in danger of losing their seats in 2026, to break with the president on policy. Democrats are hopeful. “I think a clear rejection of Trumpism in Virginia and Jersey might liberate people to say what’s on their mind a little bit more,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told HuffPost. Advertisement This obviously then gets into what counts as a “strong night” for Democrats. Off-year elections are almost always defined by opposition to the party in power in Washington. National Democrats, disliked by even a significant portion of their own voter base, will celebrate any victory of any size anywhere in the country, if only to build intraparty morale. GOP operatives generally said matching Trump’s margins in New Jersey and Virginia — he lost by roughly 6 percentage points in both states — would count as a relative success for their party. But if Democrats start to exceed those margins, the political narrative about the second Trump presidency may need to shift. Still, other Democrats warned the party won’t be able to truly turn the political tide until they win back control of the House and are able to put an actual legal check on Trump’s behavior, which neither Republicans in Congress nor the conservative-dominated Supreme Court has been willing to provide. Advertisement “I think it will require having control of one or more house of Congress to slow him down,” said Caitlin Legacki, a Democratic strategist who works with Americans Against Government Censorship. “Because he’s willing to use power however he wants, there are going to be limited incentives for people to speak out.” The Intraparty Expectations Game Beyond the national expectations game, a separate one is playing out up and down the East Coast. Social media’s most partisan participants are looking to explain why their preferred Democrat — whether it be Mamdani, Spanberger or Rep. Mikie Sherrill, running for governor in New Jersey — actually embodies the secret to defeating Republicans in 2026 and 2028. Both Spanberger and Mamdani are heavy favorites, with discussion focusing more on whether Spanberger can win by more than the almost 10 percentage points former Gov. Ralph Northam won by in 2017 and whether she can carry unpopular Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones over the finish line, and on whether Mamdani can win a majority of the electorate against fellow Democrat Andrew Cuomo, running this time as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa. Advertisement Sherrill is still the favorite in New Jersey — not a single poll has shown Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the lead, though some have shown far closer margins than Democrats would prefer. If her race remains close and Mamdani romps, expect many progressives to point to the two contests as evidence the left is better able to excite voters. This comparison, though, does not really hold water. New York City is simply a far more Democratic and progressive jurisdiction than New Jersey or most anywhere else in the country. (This isn’t to say Democrats can’t learn anything about communications or messaging from Mamdani’s rapid rise.) The better comparison point for Sherrill might be New Jersey Sen. Andy Kim, who won office last year while performing 4 percentage points better than Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris did in the state. Kim successfully tapped into anger at the state’s sclerotic political establishment in a way Sherrill largely hasn’t tried — perhaps, one New Jersey-based operative who requested anonymity noted, because she’ll have to work with said political establishment to get things done. Advertisement Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, when asked who he thought was going to be the face of the party after Tuesday, focused on what Sherrill, Mamdani and Spanberger share. “All three are running on kitchen table issues and affordability,” he told HuffPost. “They have different approaches based on unique needs of their states or in New York City, and that’s the beauty of the Democratic Party.” “We have many different ideas because we have a lot of different viewpoints in our party,” Martin continued. “But we share the same goals and, right now, you can see that across the board with what our candidates are campaigning for.” Looking For The ICE Backlash Latino voters in New Jersey shifted hard toward Trump in 2024, disappointed with how former President Joe Biden had handled inflation, immigration and a host of other issues. Trump’s approval rating with Latinos nationally has plummeted since then — a UnidosUS poll of Latino voters released this week found 64% of Latinos disapprove of his job performance, with 13% of Trump 2024 voters saying they would not support him again. Advertisement A key factor driving down Trump’s approval has been the aggressiveness of his immigration enforcement, led by ICE and Border Patrol, and operatives in both parties will be closely examining the results of the gubernatorial races in Latino-heavy municipalities like New Jersey’s West New York, Passaic and Union City to look for signs of a backlash to ICE. Will Trump’s 2024 voters turn for Ciattarelli, switch to Sherrill or stay home entirely? A Mamdani Wave? There’s no reason for New York City’s politics to be like anywhere else in the country: The city is more populous, denser and has larger immigrant populations than basically any other jurisdiction in America. But Mamdani’s anticipated victory could be part of a mini-wave of progressives winning mayoral races in major cities. In Seattle and Minneapolis, progressive challengers are giving moderate incumbents a run for their money. Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell is hoping to fend off progressive activist Katie Wilson, while Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey is facing a number of challengers in a race using ranked-choice voting. His leading opponent, Omar Fateh, has drawn obvious comparisons to Mamdani since he’s also a progressive Muslim in his 30s. Advertisement The Minneapolis race, taking place five years after the murder of George Floyd, has revolved around policing, with Frey working to recruit more officers while Fateh accuses him of failing to implement major reforms following Floyd’s death. In Seattle, where no mayor has won reelection in two decades, Harrell is arguing Wilson is too inexperienced to lead a city that could find itself in Trump’s crosshairs. A Peach State Bellwether Statewide races taking place Tuesday night in swing states are few and far between, with only Georgia and Pennsylvania on the map. But the outcomes in those races could hold clues for the mood in more disputed and more politically important territory. ReportingWhat'sReal Your SupportFuelsOur Mission Your SupportFuelsOur Mission Join HuffPost Today This Election Day we’re cutting through the noise. With no billionaire influence or angles, we’re here to inform voters and help you make sense of the election day chaos. By becoming a member you help power this mission. We remain committed to providing you with the unflinching, fact-based journalism everyone deserves. Thank you again for your support along the way. We’re truly grateful for readers like you! Your initial support helped get us here and bolstered our newsroom, which kept us strong during uncertain times. Now as we continue, we need your help more than ever. We hope you will join us once again. We remain committed to providing you with the unflinching, fact-based journalism everyone deserves. Thank you again for your support along the way. We’re truly grateful for readers like you! Your initial support helped get us here and bolstered our newsroom, which kept us strong during uncertain times. Now as we continue, we need your help more than ever. We hope you will join us once again. Support HuffPost Already a member? Log in to hide these messages. Some seem predictable. In Pennsylvania, three state Supreme Court justices appointed to the bench by Democrats are expected to retain their seats in a retention election. A right-wing push has sought to unseat them in order to change the balance of power on the currently Democratic-controlled court, which has in recent years upheld voting and abortion rights and struck down Trump’s bid to overturn the 2020 election. Advertisement But there is more mystery about the outcome in Georgia, where two Democrats are running for spots on the Georgia Public Service Commission, which regulates utilities in the state. If they win, Peter Hubbard and Alicia Johnson will become the first Democrats to win a nonfederal statewide office in Georgia since 2006. The race also serves as a convenient test of Democratic messaging surrounding high electricity prices, which have also been a major issue in Virginia and New Jersey.
