Spartans vs. Trojans, from LAN to LAX.
Michigan State (3-0) opens Big Ten play at No. 25 USC (3-0, 1-0) on Saturday (11 p.m., FOX) in the first matchup between the programs since 1990.
Here are five things to watch in the game and a final score prediction:
Ready for the moment?
A double-overtime win against Boston College felt like a potential turning point for the Spartans early in coach Jonathan Smith’s second season. A lot of those good vibes were erased last week in a lackluster 41-24 win against FCS program Youngstown State, combined with the Eagles losing at Stanford.
That’s part of the week-to-week nature of college football and there’s a new test awaiting Michigan State on the road against a high-powered USC squad. With the exception of the 2021 season that proved to be a flash in the pan, the Spartans simply haven’t been competitive against the big boys on the schedule for years. That’s not to say the Trojans are playoff contenders – they have wins against Missouri State, Georgia Southern and Purdue – but there’s a big opportunity for Smith and the Spartans to show progress late Saturday night.
Can Nick Marsh play?
Marsh is quarterback Aidan Chiles’ top target and a true difference maker for the Spartans. That means the wide receiver’s questionable status due to an apparent leg injury suffered last week looms large.
Marsh is picking up where he left off after a standout true freshman season and had three touchdown grabs in the first two games combined. The River Rouge product hauled in six receptions on six targets for 94 yards in less than two full quarters against Youngstown State before checking out.
Smith said Marsh and starting running back Makhi Frazier, who also suffered a leg injury last week, will be evaluated at the end of the week. Although the Spartans keep repeating “next man up,” there’s a reason those two lead the team in receiving and rushing, respectively.
Among the offseason veteran transfer additions, Omari Kelly (15 catches for 184 yards) has been a strong No. 2 while Chrishon McCray and Rodney Bullard have made plays but Marsh is the leader of the room. If he can’t play, that would mean a lot less explosive lineup for the Spartans in a game they’ll be challenged to keep pace.
Aidan Chiles and his protection
Although Chiles ran for a career-high 76 yards on eight attempts last week, the rest of Michigan State’s ground game was basically shut down by an FCS program. The Spartans were off schedule and more inefficient play on first and second down would be a major problem on Saturday.
USC ranks second in the nation in both sacks (4.6) and tackles for a loss (10.3) per game. Eight different Trojans have at least one sack with linebacker Eric Gentry leading the way with three.
Chiles, a Long Beach native, has been impressive through three games and will tasked with maintaining that trajectory in a homecoming trip against a defense Smith called “salty.” Although the Chiles wasn’t sacked last week, he was dropped eight times in the first two games combined. There have been offensive line breakdowns and whiffs in pass protection by running back Brandon Tullis.
How Michigan State handles what USC sends and its ability to keep Chiles upright will be critical in having a chance to pull off an upset on the road.
Limiting explosive plays
Following last week’s 33-17 weather-delayed win at Purdue, USC is first in the nation in total offense (604.0) and second in scoring (55.0). Unlike some previous seasons, the Trojans have also been balanced while ranking in the top 20 both passing and rushing with a slew of playmakers.
USC has only two turnovers – both fumbles – and punted only three times in the first three weeks. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has thrown for 989 yards and six touchdowns and leads the country in passing efficiency. He gets the ball out quickly to the perimeter and can take the top off with a talented group of receivers led by Makai Lemon.
Michigan State remains strong against the run but hasn’t been as effective limiting explosive plays as last year. Coverage, communication and tackling issues while giving up 339 total yards and four scores against Youngstown State didn’t inspire much confidence ahead of a matchup with the Trojans.
Slaying road demons out West
Michigan State hasn’t won a regular-season game out West since at Colorado in 1984 and is 0-8 since then, despite some bowl success. Although the Spartans have three straight victories in the series against USC to knot the record at 4-4, they’re 0-3 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum with the last matchup there in 1978.
In a now coast-to-coast Big Ten, cross-country travel is an annual challenge and teams making the trip across three times zones haven’t fared well. USC already endured a headache in the trek to Purdue with the start of the game delayed by more than three hours.
Michigan State tweaked its plans and flew from Lansing to LAX on Thursday to get in a day earlier than usual for road trips. The Spartans are a morning practice team but will be pushing back activities due to the extremely late kickoff. This is the new reality of the Big Ten and teams must learn to adjust.
Prediction
It’s unclear how good USC is given its schedule so far and the same can be said for Michigan State. Having obviously watched a lot more of the latter squad, it’s tough to imagine the Spartans pulling out a win as double-digit underdog. This is a complete guess, but I think Marsh plays and makes big plays but that’s not enough. Chiles airs it out but Michigan State can’t do enough in the run game, the Trojans are disruptive in the backfield and the defense can’t get enough stops. USC 42, Michigan State 24