On Monday night in Nutley, Republican gubernatorial hopeful Jack Ciattarelli pitched his candidacy to more than 100 people crowded inside Mamma Vittoria banquet hall.
Ciattarelli, who is making his third bid for the state’s top job, opened his remarks by referencing a group of protestors gathered outside on Franklin Avenue in this Essex County town.
“How disappointed are they going to be in 28 days?” Ciattarelli said to applause from the crowd of his supporters. “Because I’m here to tell you right here, right now, in 28 days, we’re declaring victory. We’re winning this race.”
It’s now four weeks until New Jersey voters decide whether Ciattarelli, a former assemblyman, or Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill will become our next governor in a race that has become increasingly bitter as both sides claim the other is lying about their record. Rising costs, immigration, Sherrill’s military record, and Ciattarelli’s support of President Donald Trump have dominated the campaign in its most recent weeks.
The two are competing on Nov. 4 to replace outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat who is wrapping up his two terms as governor in January and cannot seek a third term this year. Vic Kaplan, a Libertarian, and Joanne S. Kuniansky, representing the Socialist Workers Party, will also be on the ballot.
Sherrill told reporters during a campaign stop at Kean University Monday that the large turnout for June’s six-person Democratic gubernatorial primary indicated how eager the party is to remain in power for a third straight term.
“That’s the kind of enthusiasm we’re seeing on the ground. We are working to get that, take that enthusiasm and ensure that every single person gets to the polls,” she said.
Polling edge
Since polling ramped up at the start of September, surveys of the contest have usually shown Sherrill with a sizable single-digit lead.
Though some polls have suggested a closer race — including a tied result from an Emerson College poll released last month — Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll director Dan Cassino believes Sherrill has the edge.
“I think we do see Democrats freaking out and getting worried and being nervous because they’re Democrats in New Jersey and that is their species’ being,” Cassino said. “I don’t think we have any particular reason for them to be nervous, but I think they very much are.”
An Axios report cited private conversations with unnamed Democrats to say the party is increasingly concerned that Sherrill could lose the race. Sherrill brushed the criticism off on Monday, suggesting national Democrats “are in a different place.”
“This is just the kind of, I think, electorate that is ready to fight hard for the things we care about, and I think we’ll see those results in November,” she said.
Ashley Koning, director of Rutgers University’s Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, warned the race would come down to turnout — something next to impossible to forecast.
“Turnout has never been something that’s predictable, but it certainly is not predictable now, and when you overlay the national political context on top of our race in this state, it is incredibly difficult to get a good handle on where this actually is, other than of course it’s close,” Koning said.
Polls of New Jersey’s 2021 gubernatorial race — when Murphy faced Ciattarelli — mostly missed the mark. Though Real Clear Politics’ polling average showed Murphy up 7.8 points over Ciattarelli, the governor won reelection by just 3.2 points.
Visibility Brigade protesters line highway overpasses with giant letters to form messages for the thousands of motorists hurtling by underneath.
Pollsters have made some changes to prevent another miss. Fairleigh Dickinson University’s poll began weighting its results by education and region to more accurately reflect attitudes across the state, Cassino said, though the effect of such changes is so far untested.
There are other reasons to think the race will be close, and the candidates’ increasing acrimony numbers near the top of the list.
Sherrill and Ciattarelli have launched ads seeking to tar their opponent in what Cassino said is a bid to drive down turnout among their rival’s base.
“The fact that it’s turned negative tells you both candidates think this race is up for grabs,” Cassino said, later adding, “This is trying to winnow the electorate down to just the most committed voters because both sides think they have an advantage there.”
Rough and tumble
Turnout in this year’s governor’s race is expected to be low, as is typical for the state’s odd-year elections. In 2021, just 40% of the state’s eligible voters cast ballots in the general election.
But the campaigns’ turn toward mudslinging could also just reflect the growing bitterness of American politics.
“I think that’s what politics is nowadays. I think we have seen more and more nationalized campaigns, including here in the Garden State,” said Koning. “This is just what politics is. This is what it’s expected to be, and that civility and decorum that used to once, potentially, accompany it is gone.”
Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship, said this year’s negativity hasn’t reached any high-water marks.
More than two-thirds of New Jersey voters are unhappy with the current state of the economy, according to a poll released Friday.
“Negative campaigns, contrasts over policies happen all the time. Personal attacks are unfortunate, but they happen in this game. We’re not playing tiddlywinks here,” he said. “This is New Jersey politics. It’s a rough-and-tumble sport.”
Trump could also prove an unpredictable variable in the race.
Sherrill has invoked him often on the campaign trail, hoping to tap the same animus that helped propel her to her first congressional term in 2018. On Monday, she criticized the effect of Trump’s tariffs and the continued federal government shutdown, which Democrats blame on Republicans and Republicans blame on Democrats.
“Voters are seeing Trump is costing them an incredible amount of money, and every time they go to Jack to say, ‘What are you going to do about it?’ his response is largely, ‘I agree with it,’” she said.
Ciattarelli’s mentions of Trump have largely been to mock Sherrill for her focus on him.
“If you get a flat tire on the way home today, it’s President Trump’s fault,” Ciattarelli joked in Nutley. “There’s nothing this woman won’t blame on President Trump.”
Historically, New Jersey backs the governor who doesn’t share the president’s party affiliation. Murphy bucked that trend to win reelection in 2021, but at least some of that win can be attributed to the pandemic, Dworkin said.
The state also rarely selects a governor from the same party three times in a row. New Jersey last did so when Gov. Richard Hughes was elected to succeed Gov. Robert Meyner in 1961.
The two front-runners in this year’s gubernatorial race don’t have many overlapping proposals, but their main pledge is the same: to make New Jersey more affordable.
“I think the fact that we’re really not sure which one of these kinds of trends is going to be dominant reflects the closeness of the race,” Dworkin said.
This story first appeared on the New Jersey Monitor.
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