Copyright Newsweek
New polls released on Monday from New England states show top contenders in a potential 2028 Democratic presidential primary. Newsweek reached out to a political analyst Monday night for comment. Why It Matters The early jockeying for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination has gained slight momentum, as multiple polls suggest shifting dynamics among leading candidates and as Democratic campaigning ahead of next year's midterms ramps up. The outcome of distant Democratic primaries will influence the party’s direction after consequential election cycles and the ongoing impact of President Donald Trump’s second term. With no presumptive nominee or clear party leader after the 2024 presidential election loss, the Democratic field remains widely contested—a scenario that could reshape the party’s electoral strategy, policy direction and prospects for challenging Republican front-runners in upcoming races. What To Know In numerous polls conducted by the University of New Hampshire from October 16 to October 21, California Governor Gavin Newsom, New York U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are leading the pack of potential Democratic nominees. In Maine, the pollster surveyed 1,094 residents and the poll had a 3 percent margin of error. For residents of the Pine Tree State, Newsom landed 16 percent of the vote, Ocasio-Cortez gathered 15 percent and Buttigieg collected 14 percent. Former Vice President Kamala Harris had 9 percent of the vote and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker came in fifth place with 8 percent. In Vermont, 880 people were polled on a potential 2028 primary. The poll had a 3.3. percent margin of error. Green Mountain State residents voted in favor of Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom, with both landing 17 percent, and Buttigieg following closely behind with 16 percent. Independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont came in fourth place with 14 percent and Harris rounded out the top five with 6 percent, the poll shows. In New Hampshire, 1,547 residents were polled about the distant Democratic primary. The poll had a 2.5 percent margin of error. Buttigieg led the pack of potential contenders with 19 percent, followed by Newsom with 15 percent and Ocasio-Cortez with 14 percent. Harris came in fourth place with 11 percent, followed by Sanders with 8 percent, per the poll for the state whose motto is "Live Free or Die." As Buttigieg, Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez remain top contenders across the three states, the polling from the University of New Hampshire shows that no candidate holds a decisive lead across recent surveys. While speaking with CBS News Sunday Morning, Newsom said that he may consider a run for the White House after the 2026 midterm elections. When asked if he'd give "serious thought" to the idea of running, Newsom responded, "Yeah, I'd be lying otherwise. I'd just be lying. And I'm not—I can't do that." Harris also recently said she is "not done," while speaking with BBC about her political future. She added though, when directly asked about a presidential bid, that she is "not focusing on that right now." Vice President JD Vance was the clear front-runner for Republicans in all three states, the polls showed. What People Are Saying Fox News Contributor Liz Peek, while speaking with Fox Business Anchor Maria Bartiromo on Monday: "I am just thrilled to think that Kamala Harris wants to run again, Maria. She sopped up so much money, maybe a billion and a half dollars of Democrat money and obviously had an incredible faceplant on the national stage." Peek later added, "I think this is just more evidence that the Democrats have an incredibly shallow bench. There are very few people with any substance who want to run." What Happens Next Most Democratic candidates are expected to publicly announce their intentions after the 2026 midterms. Political analysts anticipate that the 2028 nomination fight will clarify the party’s post-Trump era priorities and strategy, especially as new polling data emerges and lesser-known candidates test the waters. Shifts in voter sentiment, unexpected political events and each contender’s capacity to unite or expand the Democratic base will likely determine who ultimately secures the nomination.
