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Crude oil tanker owners must make their bows this year to Washington DC and Beijing. The former’s energy policy has supported big oil investment in production in countries like Guyana as well as domestically, increasing the global supply of oil and keeping down prices, which in turn has supported demand even as the energy transition plods on. The US’s erratic foreign policy has increased geopolitical uncertainty in oil prices and oil markets, leading to unexpected arbitrages. Its most recent sanctions announced in the last week have been enough to make Indian refiners reconsider their 2m barrels per day purchases of Russian oil and to drive prices up by 6% on Thursday October 23, the biggest one day rise since the American attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22 this year. Grateful VLCC owners have thus enjoyed a spike in earnings in the last 60 days as September’s firm market has continued into October. Daily average VLCC TCEs in the first 24 days of this month were $72,871 according to Baltic Exchange data, with a peak of $85,327 on October 17 falling a little short of the September 17 peak of $88,082. Shipbrokers are reporting fixtures at TCEs over $100,000 per day. Year to date average VLCC earnings of $44,279 are the best since 2015 when China was filling its newly built SPR, when the full year average was $49,635 and oil prices averaged $52 for Brent compared to $71 this year. If the usual Q4 peak in earnings arrives this year, then VLCC earnings should out-perform 2015. October has also been good to suezmax tanker owners as the daily TCE on October 24 of $70,173 was up 14% over 30 days and the recent peak of $72,981 on October 17 was the highest since November 2023. The year to date average of $45,024 compares well with $38,202 for calendar 2024 and a strong Q4 will surely bring 2025 ahead of the $48,532 average for 2023 and $48,825 for 2022.. The joy has spread to the aframax crude oil freight market, with 30 day increases in TCEs of 41% on the Southeast Asia to Australia voyage, of 89% on the cross-Med voyage, of 57% on the USG-ARA voyage, of 50% in the Caribs and 45% in the North Sea, with the Baltic’s A6 average rising 49% over 30 days to October 24 to hit $50,925 per day, with the $50,000 level last passed in April this year. The year to date average of $33,277 will need a strong Q4 to surpass annual averages of $45,397 in 2022, $45,572 in 2023 and $39,789 last year, but in the current market circumstances anything seems possible. The BDTI averaged 1,153 in the first 24 days of October, the best monthly data since 1,183 in May 2024 and the best October since 2022. The oil products tanker market has been volatile and positional with no clear trends emerging in most regions and the overall month-by-month average changing little. The benchmark LR2 voyage from the Middle East to Japan enjoyed a 24% increase in TCEs over 30 days up to October 24, reaching $26,470 as enquiry remained steady rather than spectacular. However the month-to-date average of $22,545 is down from $29,344 in September and below the average for the first nine months of $29,523 per day. On the Middle East to Europe voyage, TCEs rose 31% from a low base of $23,767 on September 24 to $31,079 on October 24 via a low of $17,373 on October 14. But again the month to date average of $22,585 is below $32,769 for September and $33,348 average for Jan-Sep this year. LR1 earnings on for the parallel voyage from the Middle East to Japan started September at around $24,000 a day, falling to nearly $16,000 a day in early October only to recover to $22,121 per day on October 24, while on the voyage from the Mid East to Europe daily TCEs rose 10% from $23,116 on September 24 to $25,347 a month later, but still below the $26,199 a day of September 1. As Indian refiners continue to offer low prices to Asian markets on the back of cheap Russian feedstock, MR tanker earnings on the Jamnagar to Chiba voyage rose 32% over 30 days to October 24, but this masks a low quantum with daily hire only reaching $13,402. Other Asian MR markets were weak in October so the Baltic’s MR tanker Pacific basket rose just 4% over 30 days to October 24 to $21,250. In the Atlantic, MR tanker rates from the US Gulf to Rotterdam firmed 25% to a more satisfying $27,547 but in the opposite direction rates plunged 49% to a disappointing $5,049 per day. The MR Atlantic average of $31,900 per day on October 24 was up by 6% over 30 days but the overall MR earnings average for October of $25,356 seems unexciting relative to crude oil tanker freight income. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index averages 574 points so far in October, its lowest reading this year and the lowest since 553 in November 2024. The seasonal pattern suggests maybe a 20% improvement in the last two months of the year.
