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Entering Week 11, we can minimize the Heisman candidates to six guys in my opinion, but there are still 8-10 guys in the mix according to odds. Julian Sayin saw the biggest jump this week and is the new favorite, but not No. 1 on my list. The bye week affected Ty Simpson and Marcel Reed, while losses hampered Diego Pavia and Haynes King. Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule! Vaughn Dalzell’s Heisman Trophy Week 11 Poll Fernando Mendoza started off the Maryland game with an interception on the first drive that gifted Maryland a field goal. Then, Indiana punted on a three-and-out, but after that, the Hoosiers were dominant. Mendoza ended with 225 total yards and two touchdowns, plus he watched his younger brother, Alberto, score two touchdowns in the 55-10 win. It wasn’t the cleanest effort from Mendoza with the interception, but he’s still golden to be a top three candidate for Heisman and my No. 1 with Penn State, Wisconsin, and Purdue remaining on the schedule. The bye week didn’t slow Julian Sayin down. He followed up arguably his best performance of the season against Illinois with another showcase. Versus Penn State, Sayin tossed four touchdowns on 20-of-23 passing and 316 yards. It was Sayin’s fifth 300-yard game, third time throwing four touchdowns, and in back-to-back weeks. Against Wisconsin and Penn State, Sayin threw for 709 yards, eight touchdowns, and an 84.8 completion percentage on 56-of-66! No one is hotter right now and he heads to Purdue next for a chance a three-straight four touchdown games. I can’t move up Ty Simpson, but after Julian Sayin‘s performance, I guess I have to move Simpson down a slot. What Alabama’s second half of the season looks like will shape Simpson’s campaign, but the first half was superb. Alabama has won seven straight games with four of the last five coming against ranked opponents. Simpson has 22 total touchdowns to one interception on the season, plus 10 scores and one pick against ranked opponents to go along with a 68.9 completion percentage. The second half opens with three consecutive home games against LSU, Oklahoma, then Eastern Illinois. Alabama wraps up the season with a road trip to rival Auburn. All three of those SEC teams currently rank 8th or worse in the standings and aren’t ranked, so the Tide have one of the better strength of schedules to finish conference season. Marcel Reed and Texas A&M are one of few undefeated teams remaining in college football and the bye week couldn’t have come at a better time. A&M is in the midst of a three-game road stretch and are 2-0 with back-to-back 45 and 49-point outings. Texas A&M is back on the road at Missouri before hosting South Carolina and Samford, then ending the regular season at Texas. If the Aggies go undefeated, Reed will have a case, but a loss in any of the final four weeks likely is the nail in the coffin for his Heisman campaign. Jeremiyah Love‘s Heisman stock was going to take a hit against Boston College, then he ripped off a 94-yard touchdown run to remind everyone why he is the only running back to consider for Heisman. Love finished with 17 carries, 136 rushing yards, two touchdowns and four receptions for 30 yards. He now has 431 total yards and three touchdowns in the past two games, plus averages 127.8 rushing yards, 24.6 rushing yards, and 2.0 touchdowns per game during the Fighting Irish’s six-game winning streak. Honorable Mentions Jeremiah Smith caught an incredible tipped touchdown pass from Julian Sayin to cap off a Buckeyes blowout over the Nittany Lions. Smith and Jeremiyah Love are duking it out for the rights to a Heisman in a year filled with quarterbacks that have a case. Smith’s case is pretty strong, but maybe not as strong as the quarterback throwing him the ball. Smith has caught 55 passes for 725 yards and nine touchdowns (10 total). He has scored in six out of eight games and scored twice in four. Even if Smith is able to have a three-touchdown performance in a game, Sayin will receive a lot of the credit, so I am losing faith in Smith’s path despite his dominant showings. Gunner Stockton turned in an iffy stat line against Florida with two touchdowns, one interception on 20-for-29 passing and a season-worst 11 rushing yards on 13 carries. The 24-20 win marked the fourth time the Bulldogs’ offense has scored fewer than 30 points this year and third in the past five games. Georgia plays four straight weekends to close the season out starting with a trip to Mississippi State before two consecutive at home versus Texas and Charlotte. The Bulldogs also end the season with a neutral field game versus Georgia Tech, but those matchups may not be high profile enough to jump Sayin, Simpson, Reed, and the others for the award since Texas and Georgia Tech have three combined losses. Ole Miss didn’t have many problems against South Carolina and shouldn’t versus The Citadel (FCS), but Trinidad Chambliss’ Heisman case might have some holes in it. There’s no denying his impact, but the stats haven’t reflected a Heisman winners’. Chambliss turned in a modest stat line of 159 passing yards, 59 rushing yards, two touchdowns, and an interception versus South Carolina. That performance marked the third-straight game he completed less than 60% of his passes and also the third-consecutive outing he’s posted one passing touchdown. The same can be said for four of the last five games. CJ Carr came out of the bye week playing mistake-free football for Notre Dame. The Irish picked up their sixth-consecutive win and Carr went 18-of-25 for 299 yards and two touchdowns. It was Carr’s third game of 300-plus total yards (had 12 rushing yards vs BC). Despite being excellent as a true freshman, Carr’s case is not nearly as strong as Mendoza, Sayin, Simpson, or Reed’s, nor are the opponents they have beat, so it’s hard to see Carr having a path, especially with his running back in the race. Stock Up As stated earlier, no one is hotter than Julian Sayin. Since the Texas win and his first career start, Sayin has averaged 294.5 passing yards, 3.1 passing touchdowns to 0.42 interceptions per game with a remarkable 82.8 completion percentage (164/198). Purdue, UCLA, and Rutgers remain before the big rivalry game against Michigan. Ohio State has a nice three-game stretch for Sayin to build off his eight passing touchdowns and 709 yards in the last two games. Stock Down After Vanderbilt took the loss at Texas, Diego Pavia’s Heisman campaign is over. The odds reflect that at +3000, but with Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee remaining — Vanderbilt could win all three games and he scores 10 total touchdowns with zero turnovers and I am confident he still won’t win. Georgia Tech is undefeated no more, so Haynes King‘s Heisman case is over. King went from +8000 to +2500 to +6000 over the last three games, so it’s been a roller coaster, but the ride is over despite a monster 511 total yards and four touchdowns in the loss at NC State. My Heisman Picks I picked Carson Beck and Dante Moore to pick the Heisman in the first four weeks of the season and both are over with. Last week, I added Fernando Mendoza (+260) and the Indiana Hoosiers to win the championship (+600). As stated last week, Indiana has a smooth final month to the year. Indiana beat Maryland 55-10 and has its second back-to-back road games going to Penn State this weekend. Following Penn State, Indiana hosts Wisconsin, and ends at Purdue. Those three remaining teams are a combined 7-18. Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule! If you are looking for help with your weekly College Football picks, NBC Sports has you covered with game odds, betting tools, and player prop projections. Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
