Copyright bostonherald
Sunday marks a serious test for the 7-2 Patriots. The Patriots travel down south to take on the 6-2 Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Here’s what we’re watching for in the matchup that will feature CBS’s No. 1 crew, Jim Nantz, Tony Romo and Tracy Wolfson, on the broadcast: • It’s another week without starting running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who is still nursing a toe injury. Expect to see TreVeyon Henderson, Terrell Jennings and D’Ernest Johnson at running back. Johnson was elevated last week, as well, but didn’t see any snaps on offense. Henderson and Jennings played fine in Stevenson’s place. Henderson generated a big play in the passing game, and Jennings scored his first NFL touchdown. The Patriots will need to be able to run the ball to beat the Bucs. • The Patriots’ offense sputtered in the second half last week when Kayshon Boutte wasn’t on the field. The Patriots will be without Boutte on Sunday against the Bucs as he continues to nurse a hamstring injury. It will be interesting to see if rookie Kyle Williams or slot receiver DeMario Douglas sees more snaps this week. If it’s Douglas, then Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins will need to play more snaps outside. If it’s Williams, then it’s a big moment for the rookie wideout, who’s caught just two passes on six targets this season. One thing is clear, however: The Patriots will miss Boutte, one of the NFL’s top deep threats this season. • Linebacker Christian Elliss (hip) will also miss Sunday’s game. The Patriots have rotated their linebackers next to Robert Spillane all season with Elliss, Jack Gibbens, Marte Mapu and Jahlani Tavai all seeing snaps. Spillane has played phenomenal football this year. Elliss, Gibbens, Mapu and Tavai have all played solid, as well. Expect to see Gibbens play the majority of snaps next to Spillane. • Will Maye continue to be able to threaten downfield without Boutte? It will be difficult. The Buccaneers rank fourth in DVOA (defense adjusted value over average) defending the deep part of the field. They have a dangerous secondary with safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith and cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum all playing good football. The Bucs also force quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly. • The Bucs’ heavy blitzing approach will test the Patriots’ offensive line and running backs. Stevenson is one of the NFL’s best at blitz pickup. Henderson has struggled in that role as a rookie, and Jennings is inexperienced at the pro level. Don’t be surprised if the Patriots keep tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper and fullback Jack Westover in to help out the line and backs. • Injuries aren’t only affecting the Patriots. The Bucs will be without wide receiver Chris Godwin and running back Bucky Irving. With wideouts Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan also on injured reserve, it makes a ton of sense for Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez to shadow Emeka Egbuka, who has 34 catches for 562 yards with five touchdowns as a rookie after being selected in the first round. If Gonzalez can erase Egbuka, then the Bucs could have trouble moving the ball on offense. • The Patriots desperately wanted to sign Godwin in free agency this offseason, but the wide receiver, coming off of an ankle dislocation, elected to take a paycut to remain with the Bucs. The Patriots pivoted to signing Stefon Diggs. Godwin has six catches for 52 yards in two games. Diggs has 45 catches for 508 yards with two touchdowns. Midway through the first season of their three-year deals, the advantage goes heavily toward Diggs, who’s also been a tremendous leader. • With 13 touchdowns and two interceptions, Mayfield has had a tremendous season, rivaling Drake Maye’s. A strong performance in this game could help out either quarterback’s MVP candidacy, since it’s a national 1 p.m. game. Mayfield has been laboring a bit in two straight games with a 58.1% completion rate and one touchdown and one interception before a Week 9 bye. • The Patriots need to avoid injuries. They avoided making any additions at the trade deadline, and injuries are starting to pile up a bit. Getting out of this game healthy with the Jets, Bengals and Giants next up on their schedule before a bye will be a win. • This is a winnable game for the Patriots, who are 2.5-point underdogs. Still, the win streak will have to come to an end at some point, and a loss here can’t disappoint Patriots fans too much. We see a 24-20 Bucs win.
