Sean McDermott and his coaches have 10 days to prepare the Buffalo Bills to face the winless New Orleans Saints in Week 4.
The Bills’ defense was frustrated by its performance on third down against the Ravens and Dolphins. Josh Allen and the offense want to learn from the three-and-outs that prevented Buffalo from pulling away in the first half against the Dolphins.
Fourteen games remain in the 2025 regular season, but the small sample size has revealed some notable trends that could matter as the undefeated Bills try to win a sixth consecutive AFC East title. Here are 10 to watch as they prepare to face the Saints on Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium:
1. Strategic shift
The Bills have used base personnel on defense – three linebackers with four defensive backs – on 41 snaps through three games, and they rank fifth in the NFL in expected points added allowed in those looks, according to Next Gen Stats. The early season trend represents a shift away from McDermott’s preference to use nickel – two linebackers with five defensive backs, most notably Taron Johnson – more than any other team.
For context, the Bills were in their base defense on 42 snaps in 2024 and 29 snaps in 2023. They didn’t have their best linebacker, Matt Milano, in Week 3 and Johnson returned from a quad injury, yet Buffalo was in base on 21 of its defensive snaps. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had just 3 passing yards on eight dropbacks against the Bills’ base defense.
But if the trend continues, Buffalo must get to the quarterback more often than it has. The Bills’ 16.7% pressure rate in base defense is tied for the second-worst mark in the NFL.
2. Up front
Joey Bosa has added juice to the Bills’ pass rush.
The 30-year-old veteran has five tackles, three quarterback hits, one sack and three forced fumbles while playing 72% of Buffalo’s defensive snaps. Among NFL defensive linemen who have played at least 40 snaps, Bosa ranks sixth in Pro Football Focus’ PRP stat, which combines sacks, hits and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer.
The Bills need more from his running mate, Greg Rousseau. The 25-year-old edge rusher has five tackles, including half a sack, and two pass deflections with one quarterback hit. He has seven pressures on 56 pass-rush snaps, compared to A.J. Epenesa’s six pressures on 28 pass-rush snaps. Bosa’s success may lead to more one-on-one matchups for Rousseau, and the Bills need him to perform up to the $80 million contract they gave him in March.
3. Downfield
Josh Allen has attempted just nine passes that traveled 20-plus yards downfield, half as many as Baker Mayfield’s league-leading 18 and tied with several others for 13th-most in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.
Of Allen’s 99 attempts, 61 have been behind the line of scrimmage or between 0 and 9 yards downfield. He’s completed 87% of those throws for 444 yards and two touchdowns. There’s no perfect way to measure a receiving corps’ ability to separate, but Next Gen Stats has Buffalo with the fourth-best separation score.
If guys are getting open, it’s only a matter of time until Allen starts to attack downfield. They will eventually need to put a safety in the box if James Cook continues to average 5.4 yards per rush. Allen told reporters during training camp that he wanted to connect on more of those throws in 2025. Through three games, Allen and offensive coordinator Joe Brady have focused on taking what the defense has given them. The splash plays haven’t been there, but Buffalo has zero turnovers while scoring 102 points.
4. Playing time
Among NFL tight ends, the Bills’ Dalton Kincaid ranks eighth in receiving yards (151), seventh in receiving expected points added, ninth in yards after catch (84) and tied for first with two touchdowns.
Yet the Bills have used Kincaid on just 51% of their offensive snaps because they also rely on Dawson Knox and rookie tight end Jackson Hawes. Knox has played 55% of their snaps, while Hawes’ maturity as a blocker has earned the fifth-round pick 35% of the snaps. Will we see Kincaid on the field more often if he continues to make plays like his 20-yard touchdown reception and 19-yard catch against the Dolphins?
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5. Elusiveness
The offensive line, tight ends and receivers deserve credit for the success of the Bills’ rushing attack, but Cook also has made defenders miss after he’s followed and stacked blocks.
Of Cook’s 108 rushing yards against Miami, 96 came after contact, the third-most in a game in his career, according to Next Gen Stats. He also had four runs of 10-plus yards, tied for second-most in a game in his career, and, prior to Week 3’s “Monday Night Football,” Cook’s 232 rushing yards after contact were second in the NFL behind the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor (297).
The Bills have rewarded Cook with more snaps, as he’s played 56%, 8% more than his total from 2024. They want to keep him healthy, but how can you take him off the field as often as last season if he’s running like this?
6. Big menO’Cyrus Torrence and David Edwards may be the best guard tandem in the NFL.
Since the start of the 2024 season, Torrence and Edwards have been credited with just one sack allowed, according to Pro Football Focus. Torrence hasn’t allowed a sack since Week 17 of his rookie season and, according to ESPN’s pass-block win rate statistic, Edwards ranked ninth among interior offensive linemen through two games.
The Falcons’ Matthew Bergeron and Chris Lindstrom are the only other guard duo ranked in the top 13 on Pro Football Focus’ run-block grading scale.
7. LeaderScouts and analysts called Terrel Bernard too small and too slow to become an above-average NFL linebacker, but he’s worked tirelessly to become an invaluable member of a Super Bowl contender.
Bernard hasn’t committed one penalty since Week 6 of the 2023 season. Over his last 20 games, Bernard has three interceptions and four fumble recoveries. His 11 takeaways since the start of 2023 are tied for fourth-most in the NFL. Losing Milano for any amount of time is a challenge for Buffalo’s defense, but Bernard has proven that he’s one of the most underrated linebackers in the league.
8. CB 1
Over the past two weeks, Christian Benford has looked like one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL.
The Bills’ No. 1 cornerback allowed six catches for 61 yards in wins over the Jets and Dolphins. Tyreek Hill used a quick cut to the right side of the end zone to catch a 5-yard, game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter, but Buffalo’s pass rush was at fault on that play. Additionally, Pro Football Focus rates Benford as the second-best corner at stopping the run. The four-year, $76 million contract the Bills gave Benford in April looks like a bargain.
9. Growing pains
Get used to some growing pains from the Bills’ rookie defensive linemen.
Deone Walker, their fourth-round pick, deserves credit for his remarkable swim move and pass rush on the play that Bernard made the game-sealing interception Thursday night, but the coaches aren’t going to overlook the rocky moments that happened earlier in the game.
Walker missed an assignment on the first drive of the game, and he missed a tackle in the second quarter when he had a chance to take down Ollie Gordon in the backfield on third-and-1. The Bills must be excited about Walker, though. You can see why he was considered a future first-round pick until a back injury ruined his final season at Kentucky, and he’s been better than second-round pick T.J. Sanders through three games.
10. Outlook
The rest of the AFC East has a combined record of 1-8, and the only win was the Patriots’ 33-27 victory over the Dolphins in a Week 2 game that was littered with reminders that Buffalo remains the class of the division. The Patriots are arguably best positioned to improve as the season progresses, but they have committed 27 penalties, and their six turnovers are on offense and tied for the most in the NFL.
The Bills are one of three teams without a turnover, and their plus-3 turnover differential is tied for the second-best mark in the league.
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Lance Lysowski
News Sports Reporter
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