Copyright Newsweek
A United Nations analysis of the latest pledges to cut emissions causing climate change shows that despite progress on a clean energy transition, the world is still falling far short of international goals to rein in the most dangerous rise in global temperature. The world is on a path to “a serious escalation of climate risks and damages,” as world leaders prepare to meet in Brazil later this month for the COP30 climate talks, according to the 2025 Emissions Gap Report released Tuesday. “We will see more intense extreme events,” Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the report by the U.N. Environment Programme, told Newsweek. “That will only intensify with every tenth of a degree of global warming, already hurting the poorest and the vulnerable the most, but also having major economic damages in high-income countries.” The report projects that once the latest national plans to reduce greenhouse gases are in place, global average temperatures will still rise by 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. While that is a slight improvement over the previous year’s estimate, it is still well above the upper limit of 2 degrees that climate scientists have warned could risk catastrophic consequences. The landmark Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 set a goal of limiting warming to somewhere between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius. The last two years have been the warmest on record and global average temperatures have neared or briefly surpassed the 1.5 degree mark. The Paris Agreement goals are based on long-term average temperatures, Olhoff explained, and in some scenarios the world might overshoot those targets in the short term but still be able to draw down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere if new emissions are eliminated. “But it will be much more challenging, of course, and much more risky, much more costly, and much more uncertain,” with every year of delay and every rise in global temperature, she warned. “There's simply a limit to how much and how long you can postpone the action required.” A separate analysis of climate action released last month showed that of the range of options to cut emissions, “none of the 45 global indicators that we track are on pace,” according to Kelly Levin, chief of Science, Data and Systems Change at the Bezos Earth Fund, said in a press briefing. The report assessed a range of efforts, such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, phasing out coal and subsidies for fossil fuels, reducing deforestation and boosting carbon removal and climate financing. The researchers found that six of those indicators are improving but too slowly to meet the Paris goals, and the rest are lagging or moving in the wrong direction. Olhoff said that while the world is still far off track for climate goals, there has been progress over the decade since the Paris Agreement was adopted. In 2015, the best estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change showed that without action, global temperatures could increase up to 7.8 degrees Celsius over the century. Global climate policies and rapid advancements in clean energy technology and energy efficiency have slashed that forecast. The Paris Agreement requires countries to update their emission-reduction plans before the COP30 talks. However, with just a week until the talks get underway, only about a third of the countries in the agreement have done so. “So that's, I would say, a bit disappointing,” Olhoff said. While several large countries have announced their intent to submit new plans, the lack of actual submissions complicated her analysis. Some major emitting countries, including China, announced the broad outlines of their new plans during a high-level event at the U.N. General Assembly meeting in September, allowing Olhoff and her team to include those in the assessment. Late in his term in office, President Joe Biden submitted the emissions plan for the United States. However, President Donald Trump has said that the U.S. will leave the Paris Agreement, and many of his administration’s policies have removed supports for clean energy and pushed for more use of fossil fuels, making the U.S. an outlier nation among the world’s major economies. Olhoff said that the reversal of U.S. energy and climate policy under the Trump administration will likely result in an additional 2.1 gigatons of emissions from the U.S. “And that’s a lot,” she said. “The main highlight of this is just how big a role all the large emitters play in making a difference and in turning this around. We really need all the major emitters to act.” While the Trump administration will not be sending a delegation to COP30, there will be a substantial U.S. presence at the climate talks, including governors of 6 states and mayors of 35 cities who are part of a coalition called America is All In. “Our mission is to show the world that the Trump administration does not reflect the values or the opportunities available in the United States today,” the group’s Managing Co-Chair Gina McCarthy said in a press briefing. McCarthy was the first White House National Climate Advisor and led the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. She said the group going to COP30 represents roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population and three-quarters of the country’s economic output, making important action at the state and local levels possible. “We're committed to delivering on U.S. climate goals,” McCarthy said. “In my experience, and I've been around for a few years, climate progress has always come from the ground up.”
