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From March 2020 until September 2024, Victoria lost almost 55,000 people to net interstate migration. Many of those people moved to Queensland, including almost 10,000 in 2022-23. “I’ve noticed a lot of people are leaving Melbourne,” The Block auctioneer and real estate coach Tom Panos told news.com.au. “That migration to Queensland started a couple of years ago. Originally, it was about the (Covid) lockdowns – a lot of people voted with their feet and departed.” Home buyers opted for cheaper homes in Brisbane, and property investors also pulled out of Melbourne due to Victoria’s high property taxes, Mr Panos said. MORE: Where the population has boomed most and why Eventually, the great migration was reflected in home values. Brisbane’s median house price overtook Melbourne’s in June 2024 – the first time since 2008 that Brisbane’s median house value was higher than Melbourne’s. “There was a time when Sydney was king and Melbourne was queen,” said Mr Panos. “Melbourne has slowly fallen back – it’s now behind Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane and Sydney.” The trend might be in the process of reversing, however. Though Victoria is in the grip of a youth crime crisis and spiralling debts, its capital city now offers more affordable housing. In the year ended March 2025, the number of people leaving Victoria had reduced to a trickle, the state experiencing a net loss of 2,318 people to interstate migration. By comparison, New South Wales lost 26,560 people, while Queensland gained 24,015. “I feel Melbourne is a great buying opportunity,” Mr Panos said. MORE: Australia’s most undervalued and overvalued suburbs “Many of the big corporate offices are there, the best sporting events are there – it doesn’t stack up.” He added that “governments change” and Victoria’s political landscape could look very different in a matter of years. “I tell a lot of people that Melbourne is undervalued,” he said. Metropole Property founder Michael Yardney cautioned that interstate migrants heading for Queensland, especially metropolitan areas, might face “high rents, rising property values and possibly greater competition for housing”. “In other words, the ‘escape to cheaper housing’ narrative doesn’t hold if you move to one of the popular spots in Queensland,” Mr Yardney said. “In Victoria, there are certainly frustrations. Cost of living, rental stress, crime concerns, infrastructure and transport issues. “These make the ‘push’ side stronger than it may have been previously. But the ‘pull’ side of Queensland or any other state has to stack up: jobs must be available, and housing affordable relative to income. And for many people, the net benefit may not yet justify uprooting – especially if they are employed or have established networks in Melbourne.” He said Queensland may be winning more interstate migrants than other states, but Victoria was not “collapsing or seeing mass flight in my view”. “Melbourne continues to have strengths – cultural, sporting, entertainment, and infrastructure – which keep it competitive.”
